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Main Title: Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Author(s): Kriegler, Elmar
Bauer, Nico
Popp, Alexander
Humpenöder, Florian
Leimbach, Marian
Strefler, Jessica
Baumstark, Lavinia
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Hilaire, Jérôme
Klein, David
Mouratiadou, Ioanna
Weindl, Isabelle
Bertram, Christoph
Dietrich, Jan-Philipp
Luderer, Gunnar
Pehl, Michaja
Pietzcker, Robert
Piontek, Franziska
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Biewald, Anne
Bonsch, Markus
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Kreidenweis, Ulrich
Müller, Christoph
Rolinski, Susanne
Schultes, Anselm
Schwanitz, Jana
Stevanovic, Miodrag
Calvin, Katherine
Emmerling, Johannes
Fujimori, Shinichiro
Edenhofer, Ottmar
Type: Article
Language Code: en
Abstract: This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
Issue Date: 18-Aug-2017
Date Available: 28-May-2018
DDC Class: 333 Boden- und Energiewirtschaft
550 Geowissenschaften
Subject(s): shared socio-economic pathway
emission scenario
energy transformation
land-use change
Journal Title: Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions
Publisher: Elsevier
Publisher Place: Amsterdam [u.a.]
Volume: 42
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
Page Start: 297
Page End: 315
ISSN: 0959-3780
Appears in Collections:FG Ökonomie des Klimawandels » Publications

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