dc.contributor.author	Gethmann, Jörn
dc.contributor.author	Probst, Carolina
dc.contributor.author	Bassett, Jason
dc.contributor.author	Blunk, Pascal
dc.contributor.author	Hövel, Philipp
dc.contributor.author	Conraths, Franz J.
dc.date.accessioned	2019-11-20T15:46:48Z
dc.date.available	2019-11-20T15:46:48Z
dc.date.issued	2019-11-19
dc.date.updated	2019-11-19T06:53:40Z
dc.description.abstract	Models can be used to plan, evaluate, and improve programs for animal disease control. In Germany, a nationwide compulsory program to eradicate Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is in force since January 2011. As it is associated with substantial expenditures, the program is currently under revision. To provide the basis for a science-based decision on the future course of BVD control in Germany, we evaluated 13 scenarios (sc1-13) with respect to the chance of reaching freedom from disease and their economic implications for a period of 20 years (2011–2030). To simulate the impact of different control strategies on disease dynamics, a disease spread model was developed. To estimate the effects of a transient infection (TI) on animal level, a gross margin analysis was performed. To assess the value of cattle that died prematurely, a valuation model was used. Finally, an economic model was developed to perform a cost-benefit analysis and to compare each control scenario with a baseline setting with no BVD control. Costs comprised the expenditures for diagnostics, vaccination, preventive culling, and trade restrictions. Benefits were animal and production losses avoided by having control measures in place. The results show that reducing the PI prevalence on animal level to 0% is only feasible in scenarios that combine antigen or antibody testing with compulsory vaccination. All other scenarios, i.e., those based exclusively on a “test and cull” approach, including the current control program, will, according to the model, not achieve freedom of BVD by 2030. On the other hand, none of the scenarios that may lead to complete BVD eradication is economically attractive [benefit-cost ratio (BCR) between 0.64 and 0.94]. The average direct costs of BVD in Germany are estimated at 113 million Euros per year (34–402 million Euros), corresponding to 28.3 million Euros per million animals. Only the concepts of the former and the current national BVD control program (“ear tag testing and culling”) may reduce the BVD prevalence to 0.01% with an acceptable BCR (net present value of 222 and 238 million Euros, respectively, with a BCR of 1.22 and 1.24).	en
dc.description.sponsorship	DFG, SFB 910, Kontrolle selbstorganisierender nichtlinearer Systeme: Theoretische Methoden und Anwendungskonzepte	en
dc.identifier.eissn	2297-1769
dc.identifier.uri	https://depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/10365
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-9324
dc.language.iso	en	en
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/	en
dc.subject.ddc	630 Landwirtschaft und verwandte Bereiche	de
dc.subject.other	bovine viral diarrhea	en
dc.subject.other	disease control	en
dc.subject.other	economic analysis	en
dc.subject.other	cost-benefit analysis	en
dc.subject.other	agent-based model	en
dc.subject.other	dairy cattle	en
dc.title	An Epidemiological and Economic Simulation Model to Evaluate Strategies for the Control of Bovine Virus Diarrhea in Germany	en
dc.type	Article	en
dc.type.version	publishedVersion	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.articlenumber	406	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi	10.3389/fvets.2019.00406	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitle	Frontiers in Veterinary Science	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishername	Frontiers Media S.A.	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplace	Lausanne	en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume	6	en
tub.accessrights.dnb	free	en
tub.affiliation	Fak. 2 Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften::Inst. Theoretische Physik::FG Empirische Netzwerke und Neurodynamik	de
tub.affiliation.faculty	Fak. 2 Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften	de
tub.affiliation.group	FG Empirische Netzwerke und Neurodynamik	de
tub.affiliation.institute	Inst. Theoretische Physik	de
tub.publisher.universityorinstitution	Technische Universität Berlin	en

An Epidemiological and Economic Simulation Model to Evaluate Strategies for the Control of Bovine Virus Diarrhea in Germany

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