Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

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dc.contributor.authorKriegler, Elmar
dc.contributor.authorBauer, Nico
dc.contributor.authorPopp, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorHumpenöder, Florian
dc.contributor.authorLeimbach, Marian
dc.contributor.authorStrefler, Jessica
dc.contributor.authorBaumstark, Lavinia
dc.contributor.authorBodirsky, Benjamin Leon
dc.contributor.authorHilaire, Jérôme
dc.contributor.authorKlein, David
dc.contributor.authorMouratiadou, Ioanna
dc.contributor.authorWeindl, Isabelle
dc.contributor.authorBertram, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorDietrich, Jan-Philipp
dc.contributor.authorLuderer, Gunnar
dc.contributor.authorPehl, Michaja
dc.contributor.authorPietzcker, Robert
dc.contributor.authorPiontek, Franziska
dc.contributor.authorLotze-Campen, Hermann
dc.contributor.authorBiewald, Anne
dc.contributor.authorBonsch, Markus
dc.contributor.authorGiannousakis, Anastasis
dc.contributor.authorKreidenweis, Ulrich
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorRolinski, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorSchultes, Anselm
dc.contributor.authorSchwanitz, Jana
dc.contributor.authorStevanovic, Miodrag
dc.contributor.authorCalvin, Katherine
dc.contributor.authorEmmerling, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorFujimori, Shinichiro
dc.contributor.authorEdenhofer, Ottmar
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-28T09:44:34Z
dc.date.available2018-05-28T09:44:34Z
dc.date.issued2017-08-18
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.en
dc.identifier.issn0959-3780
dc.identifier.urihttps://depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/7865
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-7025
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subject.ddc333 Boden- und Energiewirtschaftde
dc.subject.ddc550 Geowissenschaftende
dc.subject.othershared socio-economic pathwayen
dc.subject.otherSSP5en
dc.subject.otheremission scenarioen
dc.subject.otherenergy transformationen
dc.subject.otherland-use changeen
dc.titleFossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st centuryen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleGlobal environmental change : human and policy dimensionsen
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameElsevieren
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceAmsterdam [u.a.]en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend315en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart297en
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume42en
tub.accessrights.dnbfreeen
tub.affiliationFak. 6 Planen Bauen Umwelt::Inst. Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanung::FG Ökonomie des Klimawandelsde
tub.affiliation.facultyFak. 6 Planen Bauen Umweltde
tub.affiliation.groupFG Ökonomie des Klimawandelsde
tub.affiliation.instituteInst. Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanungde
tub.publisher.universityorinstitutionTechnische Universität Berlinen

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