Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?

dc.contributor.authorMüller, Paul Manuel
dc.contributor.authorHeitzig, Jobst
dc.contributor.authorKurths, Jürgen
dc.contributor.authorLüdge, Kathy
dc.contributor.authorWiedermann, Marc
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-21T11:08:01Z
dc.date.available2023-04-21T11:08:01Z
dc.date.issued2021-04-26
dc.date.updated2023-03-28T03:14:36Z
dc.description.abstractIn the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.en
dc.identifier.eissn1951-6401
dc.identifier.issn1951-6355
dc.identifier.urihttps://depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/18635
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-17444
dc.language.isoen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::530 Physik::530 Physik
dc.subject.othercondensed matter physicsen
dc.subject.othermaterials scienceen
dc.subject.otherplasma physicsen
dc.subject.otherphysicsen
dc.subject.othermeasurement science and instrumentationen
dc.subject.othercontinuum physicsen
dc.titleAnticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?en
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue16-17
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleThe European Physical Journal Special Topics
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameSpringer Nature
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceHeidelberg
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend3199
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart3189
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume230
dcterms.rightsHolder.referenceCreative-Commons-Lizenz
tub.accessrights.dnbfree
tub.affiliationFak. 2 Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften::Inst. Theoretische Physik::N/A (Not Applicable)
tub.publisher.universityorinstitutionTechnische Universität Berlin

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading…
Thumbnail Image
Name:
s11734-021-00011-5.pdf
Size:
1.26 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
4.86 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:

Collections