A Scheme for Jointly Trading off Costs and Risks of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation Under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

dc.contributor.authorRoshan, Elnaz
dc.contributor.authorKhabbazan, Mohammad M.
dc.contributor.authorHeld, Hermann
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-06T11:47:16Z
dc.date.available2023-04-06T11:47:16Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-10
dc.date.updated2023-03-25T06:19:52Z
dc.description.abstractSide effects of “solar-radiation management” (SRM) might be perceived as an important metric when society decides on implementing SRM as a climate policy option to alleviate anthropogenic global warming. We generalize cost-risk analysis that originally trades off expected welfare loss from climate policy costs and risks from transgressing climate targets to also include risks from applying SRM. In a first step of acknowledging SRM risks, we represent global precipitation mismatch as a prominent side effect of SRM under long-tailed probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity. We maximize a social welfare function for the following three scenarios, considering alternative relative weights of risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally-weighted both-risks. Our analysis shows that in the temperature-risk-only scenario, perfect compliance with the 2 °C-temperature target is attained for all numerically represented climate sensitivities, a unique feature of SRM, but the 2 °C-compatible precipitation corridor is violated. The precipitation-risk-only scenario exhibits an approximate mirror-image of this result. In addition, under the both-risks scenario, almost 90% and perfect compliance can be achieved for the temperature and precipitation targets, respectively. Moreover, in a mitigation-only analysis, the welfare loss from mitigation cost plus residual climate risks, compared to the no-climate-policy option, is approximately 4.3% (in terms of balanced growth equivalent), while being reduced more than 90% under a joint-mitigation-SRM analysis.en
dc.description.sponsorshipDFG, 38787541, EXC 177: Integrierte Klimasystemanalyse und -vorhersage
dc.description.sponsorshipDFG, 220274451, SPP 1689: Climate Engineering: Risiken, Herausforderungen, Möglichkeiten?
dc.identifier.eissn1573-2967
dc.identifier.issn1420-2026
dc.identifier.urihttps://depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/18500
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-17309
dc.language.isoen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc300 Sozialwissenschaften::330 Wirtschaft::333 Boden- und Energiewirtschaft
dc.subject.otherclimate targetsen
dc.subject.othercost-risk analysisen
dc.subject.otherdecision making under uncertaintyen
dc.subject.othermitigationen
dc.subject.othersolar-radiation managementen
dc.titleA Scheme for Jointly Trading off Costs and Risks of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation Under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributionsen
dc.typeArticle
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.doi10.1007/s10666-021-09778-2
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.issue5
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journaltitleEnvironmental Modeling & Assessment
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublishernameSpringer Nature
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.originalpublisherplaceHeidelberg
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pageend836
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.pagestart823
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.volume26
dcterms.rightsHolder.referenceCreative-Commons-Lizenz
tub.accessrights.dnbfree
tub.affiliationFak. 7 Wirtschaft und Management::Inst. Volkswirtschaftslehre und Wirtschaftsrecht (IVWR)::FG Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP)
tub.publisher.universityorinstitutionTechnische Universität Berlin

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